Dhaka Bureau: Analysis of the impact of the newly announced US visa policy is still ongoing. Who has won, who has lost – but it can be said in the light of this visa policy – the caretaker government of BNP has become the ‘grave’ of the claim. The party has been threatening to boycott the elections if the demands of the caretaker government are not met; Also officially welcomed the US visa policy. But they have not yet expressed their position about participating in the elections. All in all, the government and the opposition parties show a ‘win win’ attitude about the new US visa policy, but in reality there is nothing to stop the joy for BNP.
On the other hand, there is relief in the Awami League government thinking that the new visa policy is not a ban, but only a warning. However, leaders of the ruling Awami League and government ministers in the same tone said that the restrictions on visa policy announced by the US are applicable to all political parties involved in elections and are a warning. Awami League and the government are not upset about this.
An analysis of the visa policy has shown that there are at least four factors, due to which the BNP will suffer more than the ruling party Awami League. However, the BNP is still not saying anything about the visa policy even after the weekend. BNP is currently conducting a movement demanding the fall of the government. That is, the demand of caretaker government is one of their movements. The party will have to be more aggressive to realize this demand. Programs like hartal-burning-burning should be given – which can be considered as obstruction in the way of fair elections. But those who will create obstacles in making the next national elections of Bangladesh free and fair – they are said to be brought under the restrictions in the visa policy of the United States. In that case, if the United States thinks that the election has been prevented by such a movement, then there is a danger of the visa being stopped. In such a situation, BNP must go for election under Awami League. As a result, it is considered that their movement will not freeze.
On the other hand, the government party Awami League sees this visa policy as positive for fair elections. They feel that the new visa policy has allowed the government to continue its development policy. It is not proven in the visa policy, the United States is anti-government or anti-Awami League. Rather, the announced visa policy is in a fairly ‘balance’ position. It is not stated in that policy that elections will not be held if the caretaker government of BNP does not accept the demands. The election will be held according to the existing laws of Bangladesh and anyone who obstructs it will be punished. In this case, Awami League or the government wants a fair and transparent vote. Besides, the US Embassy has also strongly condemned the threat that Rajshahi’s BNP leader Chand has made to kill Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Taking these things into consideration, the United States is not against the Awami League or the government.
After the announcement of the visa policy, the news was not only published in the newspapers of Dhaka, but also in the Indian press. Former Indian Foreign Secretary Krishnan Srinivasan called the US decision ridiculous in his comments to The Telegraph published from West Bengal. He referred to US activities in Dhaka (in Bangladesh) during the last two elections, which were believed to favor the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). But it is not mentioned in the new visa policy. Instead, Blinken and his colleagues at the State Department explained, the new visa policy would apply to all parties and promote the sole US interest—democracy.
Several Bangladeshi politicians said that the United States had sent the Seventh Fleet in support of Pakistan during the Liberation War (1971). Their senior diplomats have always maintained ties with the BNP. Even in such a situation, the new visa policy is not able to benefit BNP for the time being. That is, the party will not be able to create obstacles in the election through agitation. Awami League is getting relief in this place.
Meanwhile, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has not officially responded to the new visa policy in Bangladesh. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to go on a state visit to the United States in June. In that visit, New Delhi is expected to monitor how the Dhaka-Washington ‘tug of war’ will be presented.
The analysis also revealed that the BNP has been threatening to boycott the elections if the caretaker government’s demands are not met. The group has once again officially welcomed the US visa policy. They have not yet expressed their position about participating in the elections. According to BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, we have been deprived of our democratic rights because people did not get a chance to vote in the last two elections. We believe there cannot be free and fair elections without a caretaker government and we will stand firm in our demand. But he did not reveal an analysis of how the party would stick to its position despite this visa policy.
According to a retired Bangladeshi diplomat who has worked in various Western countries, it is not yet time to comment on the new visa policy and its possible impact on the upcoming elections. We will have to wait some time before we can assess what the US actually wants to achieve with it, because the statement (visa policy) is very short.
But that’s right, one of the objectives of the statement is to support Bangladesh’s goal of holding free, fair and peaceful national elections. This objective is aligned with the declared objective of the Awami League government – which is reiterated in the visa policy. The statement added that under this policy, the United States may restrict visa issuance to any Bangladeshi individual deemed responsible or involved in undermining Bangladesh’s democratic election process.
Surprisingly, within hours of the announcement of the visa policy, US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lew said in an interview to a Bangladeshi television channel that the policy would apply equally to members of the ruling and opposition parties. He emphasized that the US government never takes sides in another country’s elections.
It was here that State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shahriar Alam said that the new visa policy would not “hurt” Dhaka as the Sheikh Hasina government was “committed” to conducting transparent elections, which was later revealed in a statement by the Ministry of External Affairs. That is, the government saw the US announcement in the larger context of the Sheikh Hasina government’s unequivocal commitment to hold free and fair elections. However, Bangladesh hopes that such visa policies will not be applied arbitrarily and without purpose.
However, several leaders of Awami League think that it seems natural that Washington has drawn opposition forces like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) closer. But after a good analysis of their announced visa policy, it has been found that in that policy, the election will not be conducted as per the BNP’s demand, but the election will be conducted according to the existing law and if there is any obstruction, there will be punishment.
In a comment to The Telegraph, Kolkata-based analyst Arindam Mukhopadhyay said the new visa policy is nothing but a US pressure tactic. The primary reason for this is BNP’s consistent lobbying in the United States against Awami League. According to him, I would wait for some more US action before commenting on the impact of the new rules.
Meanwhile, some in Bangladesh wonder if the US will follow suit from other Western countries. However, Sadeka Halim, professor of Sociology Department of Dhaka University, was not too worried about the new visa policy. According to him, most people understand that it is the target of opposition parties like BNP, who indulge in violence before elections and create excuses to stay away from elections and undermine the democratic process. Due to the new visa policy, they will not be able to play the same game this time.
