The Crime Desk: Cyclone Mokha is likely to become stronger. The cyclone is expected to make landfall over Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, and Myanmar’s Rakhine state with a speed of 180 to 200 km per hour. It is likely to hit the country between 6 a.m. next Sunday (May 14) and 6 a.m. on May 15. This is said by Mustafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on meteorology and climate at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada.
Analyzing various weather forecast models in the world, this meteorologist said that the cyclone Mokha, formed in the Bay of Bengal, will hit Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, and Mongdu districts of Rakhine state in Myanmar between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. on May 15 as a very severe cyclone. It will hit the ground with
To the question of how certain you are about the above-mentioned wind speed at the time of possible Cyclone Moka landfall, Mustafa Kamal Palash said that Cyclone Mokha (probably) is going to hit the eastern Bay of Bengal coast as a very intense cyclone with a speed of about 180 to 200 km per hour. I have full confidence in ensemble weather forecasts from forecast models. I have repeatedly reminded you in every update since April 26 that this cyclone will be a very strong cyclone.
According to Mostafa Kamal Palash’s forecast about the possibility of flooding in the coastal areas due to this cyclone, there is a possibility that the coastal areas of these two districts will be flooded with a 15-foot high tide when the cyclone Mokha passes over the coast of Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar districts at the mentioned speed. Coastal areas of Barisal division and coastal districts of Khulna division with 7 to 10 feet and 5 to 8 feet of high tide are feared to be inundated.
When asked which area of the country is most likely to suffer loss of life and property due to this cyclone, he said that the center of Cyclone Mokhar may pass over Saint Marty Dwip, Teknaf, Kutubdia, and Maheshkhali upazilas of Cox’s Bazar district. There is a strong fear that the cyclone will pass over the Rohingya refugee camps located in Teknaf Upazila.
However, there is still a slight uncertainty as to where the cyclone will make landfall. Palash said that the cyclone may lean slightly towards Myanmar or the Barisal division. That is, there is some possibility of the cyclone passing over Chittagong and Noakhali districts. Again, there is some possibility of the cyclone moving slightly to the right and making landfall over Cox’s Bazar and Maungdoo districts of Rakhine State in Myanmar.
Forecast of rain:
Heavy to very heavy rains are likely to occur in some parts of the country due to this cyclone. Palash said 250 to 400 millimeters of rain are expected in Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar districts, 200 to 300 millimeters in Barisal division, and districts of Chittagong Hill Tracts. 150 to 250 millimeters in the districts of Khulna Division; 100 to 200 millimeters of rain in the districts of Dhaka and Sylhet divisions; 50 to 100 millimeters in the districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions; and 100 to 150 millimeters in the districts of Mymensingh division.
